اثر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی ایران

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

چکیده

امروزه تصور اقتصادی بدون استفاده از ابزارهای سیاست گذاری و مداخله سیاست گذاران تقریباً غیرممکن به نظر می رسد، لذا آنچه اهمیت دارد کاهش هزینه های ناشی از سیاست ها و افزایش کارایی آنهاست. بخش کشاورزی با دیگر بخش ها در اقتصاد داخلی وابسته است و به کارگیری و اجرای سیاست های کلان اقتصادی از سوی دولتمردان به طرق مختلف بر فعالیت بخش های گوناگون اقتصادی اثر می گذارد. در این تحقیق اثرات کوتاه و بلندمدت تغییر در متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان شامل قیمت محصولات کشاورزی، نرخ بهره، نرخ ارز، حجم پول، تولید ناخالص داخلی و یارانه بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی ایران در یک چارچوب همگرایی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بدین منظور، مدل همگرایی یوهانسون با داده های سالانه 1387-1355 به کار گرفته شد. نتایج برآورد الگو نشان داد که رابطه تعادلی بلندمدت بین متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان منتخب و درآمد بخش کشاورزی وجود دارد. نرخ بهره و نرخ ارز در کوتاه و بلندمدت، به ترتیب رابطه منفی و مثبت با درآمد بخش کشاورزی دارد که از لحاظ تئوری قابل انتظار است. همچنین قیمت محصولات کشاورزی و حجم نقدینگی در بلندمدت اثر منفی، اما در کوتاه مدت اثر مثبت بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی دارند. علاوه بر این یافته های مطالعه بیان کرد که یارانه اعطایی به این بخش اثر معنی داری بر درآمد کشاورزان نداشته است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of macroeconomic variables on the Iran agricultural sector income

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Rabiei 1
  • M. Salarpour 2
  • M. Sabouhi Saboni 3
چکیده [English]

Now seems almost impossible, imagine an economy without the use of policy tools and intervention policy makers. So, what is important is cost reduction resulting from the policies and increasing their efficiency. Agricultural sector with other sectors in the domestic economy is dependent, and application and performance macro-economic policies by the government affects on different parts of economic activity in different ways. This study examines the short and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables, including agricultural commodity prices, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, GDP and subsidies on the Iran's agricultural sector income in a cointegration framework. For this purpose, is used from Johansen Model with annual data for 1976– 2008. Results show that there exist the long-run equilibrium relationships among selected macroeconomic variables and income agricultural sector. Interest rate and exchange rate, that could be expected Theoretically, have in the short and long-run respectively, negative and positive relationship with income agricultural sector. Also, the prices of agricultural commodities and money supply have in the long term negative effect, but in the short term positive effect on income agricultural sector. The results showed that the payment subsidy to the agricultural sector has not significant effect on income farmers
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • commodity price
  • Exchange Rate
  • interest rate
  • income agricultural sector
  • Johansen Cointegration
1. Akbari, N.M And Hadian, V. 2003. The effect of government
spending on agricultural value added. Journal of Agricultural and
Development Economics. 42: 137-166.
2. Appleyard D.R. And Field A.J. 1998. International Economics.
New York: McGraw-Hill. 3rd Edition.
3. Baek J. And Koo WW. 2007. Dynamic interrelationships between
the U.S. agricultural trade balance and the macroeconomy.
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 39: 457- 470.
4. Baek J And Koo W.W. 2008. Identifying macroeconomic
linkages to U.S. agricultural trade balance. Canadian Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 56: 63- 77.
5. Baek J And Koo W.W. 2010. The U.S. Agricultural Sector and
the Macroeconomy. Journal of Agricultural and Applied
Economics. 42: 457– 465.
6. Baek J. Koo, W.W And Mulik K. 2009. Exchange Rate Dynamics
and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 38: 213– 228.
7. Baek, J And Koo, W.W. 2009. On the dynamic relationship
between U.S. farm income and macroeconomic variables. Journal
of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 41: 521- 528.
8. Baskara, R. 1998. Cointegration and its economic applications.
Translated by Ali Hossein Samadi. Sasan publication. Shiraz, 320
p.
9. Bessler, D.A And Babula, R.A. 1987. Forecasting wheat exports:
Do exchange rates matter?. Journal of Business and Economic
Statistics. 5: 397– 406.
10. Bhide, S. Vani, B.P And Rajeev, M. 2008. Do Macroeconomic
Conditions Matter for Agriculture?. The Indian Experience. The
Singapore Economic Review.
11. Bradshaw, R And Orden, D. 1990. Granger causality from the
exchange rate to agricultural prices and export sales. Western
Journal of Agricultural Economics. 15: 100–110.
12. Central Bank of Iran (1959-2008). Economic report and balance
sheet. Office of Economic.
Beik Zadeh, S And Mehdi Pour, A. 2005. The effect of the 
monopoly price (guaranteed) by the government to buy wheat on
the open market price of barley. 5th Conference of Iranian
agricultural economy. Zahedan. University of Sistan and
Baluchestan.
13. Parizan, V And Torkamani, J. 2005. Effects of monetary policy
and exchange rates on changes in relative prices of agriculture.
Proceedings of the 5th Conference of Iran's agricultural economy.
Zahedan. University of Sistan and Baluchestan.
14. Tavakoli, A. 1997. Time series analysis: Cointegration and
uniform cointegration. Tehran: Business Research Institute.
188p.
15. Sasuli, M.r And Saleh, A. 2007. The effect of monetary and
financial policies on the value added of agriculture sector in Iran.
6th Conference of Iran's agricultural economy. Mashhad.
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
16. Shaghaghi Shahri, V. 2005. Evaluation of macro-economic
variables affecting on the Iranian trade account deficit. Journal of
Economic Literature. 2 (3): 143-174.
17. Chambers, R.G. 1981. Interrelationships between monetary
instruments and agricultural commodity trade. American Journal
of Agricultural Economics. 63: 934–941.
18. Chambers, R.G. 1984. Agricultural and Financial Market
Interdepence in the short run. American Journal of U. S.
Agricultural Economics. 66: 12- 24.
19. Chaudhuri, K And Rao, R.K. 2004. Output fluctuations in Indian
agriculture and industry: a reexamination. Journal of Policy
Modeling. 26: 223– 237.
20. Cheung, Y And Lai, K. 1993. A fractional conitegration analysis
of purchasing power parity. Journal of Business and Economic
Statistics. 21: 102-112.
21. Johansen, J. 1995. Likelihood-based inference in cointegrate
vector autoregressive models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
267p.
22. Kaabia, M.B And Gil, J.M. 2000. Short and long-run effects of
macroeconomic variables on the Spain agricultural sector.
European Review of Agricultural Economics. 27: 449- 471.
23. Lachaal, L And womak, A.W. 1998. The Impacts trade of
macroeconomic linkages on Canadian agriculture, American
Journal of Agricultural Economics. 80: 45- 60.
24. Letsoalo, A And Kirsten, J. 2003. Modeling the impacts of
macroeconomic and trade policies on the South African
agricultural sector. Annual Conference of the Agricultural
Economic Association of South African (AEASA). October. 2- 3.
25. Mojtahed, A And Sharifi, M. 2004. Effects of monetary and
financial policies on agricultural growth in Iran. Journal of
Agricultural and Development Economics. 47: 1-28.
26. Mehrabian, K. 2001. Effects of monetary and financial policy on
growth Iranian agriculture. The Thesis MSC of Agricultural
Economics. Department of Agricultural Economics University of
Tehran.
27. Mohammadi, H. 2010. Effect of government monetary and
financial policies on exports, capital investment and added value
to agricultural. Proceedings of Conference on Agriculture in Iran
in 1404. 8 Oct. Rasht. Islamic Azad University.
28. Moghaddasi, R And Farhadi, A. 2005. Effectiveness of monetary
and financial policies on the agricultural sector (1971-2001).
Agriculture and National Development. Planning and Agricultural
Economics Research Institution. Volume II: 68-75.
29. Noferesti, M. 1999. Unit root and Cointegration in econometrics.
Tehran. Resa cultural institution. 480p.
30. Ordon, D. 2002. Exchange rate effects on Agricultural trade.
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 34(2): 301- 312.
31. Ramachandran, M. 2004 . Do Broad Money, Output and Prices
Stand for Stable Relationship in India?. Journal of Policy
Modeling. 26: 983-1001.
32. Rosson, C.P. 2009. Discussion: Exchange Rates, Energy Policy
and Outcomes in Agricultural Markets. Journal of Agricultural
and Applied Economics. 41(2): 529–530.
33. Schuh, G.E. 1974. The Exchange rate and U. S agriculture.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 56: 1- 13.
34. Schuh, G.E. 1976. The New Macroeconomics of Agricultural.
American Journal of Agricultural Econ. 58: 802-811.
35. Shane, M. Liefert, W. Morehart, M. Peters, M. Dillard, J.
Torgersen, D And Edmondson W. 2009. The 2008/2009 World 
Economic Crisis: What It Means for U.S. Agriculture. Economic
Research Service Report WRS-09-02. USDA.
36. Snell, W.M. Marchant, M.A And Infanger, C.L. 1997.
Macroeconomic Policy Linkages to Agriculture. University of
Kentucky. College of Agriculture.