تأثیر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه باهنر کرمان

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه باهنر کرمان/عضو انجمن پژوهشگران جوان

چکیده

بسیاری از تحلیل‏گران اقتصاد بین‏الملل اتفاق نظر دارند که فراگیر شدن نظام ارزی شناور بعد از نظام برتون وودز، نااطمینانی قابل توجهی را در اقتصاد کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته ایجاد کرده است. این مطالعه اثر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی را بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران در دوره 1386-1348 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. به این منظور، الگوی واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی اتورگرسیو تعمیم یافته (GARCH) برای شاخص‏سازی نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی استفاده شد. برای برآورد رابطه همجمعی و پویایی‏های کوتاه‏مدت نیز رهیافت همجمعی خودتوضیح با وقفه‏های گسترده (ARDL) به کار گرفته شد. بر اساس یافته‏های این پژوهش، روابط کوتاه‏مدت وبلندمدت قوی و معنی‏داری بین متغیرها در مدل رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران وجود دارد و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی اثر منفی و معنی‏داری بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در کوتاه‏مدت و بلندمدت داشته است. ضریب تصحیح خطا (71/0-) نیز با علامت منفی و معنی‏دار گویای سرعت بالای فرایند تعدیل است. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، سیاست‏های ارزی، تجاری، پولی و مالی باید به صورت هماهنگ و در راستای کاهش نااطمینانی طراحی و اجرا شوند. علاوه بر این پیشنهاد می‏شود برای جبران ضرر ناشی از نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی، استفاده از الگوهای بیمه‏ای در دستور کار سیاستگزاران قرار گیرد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Article title: Impact of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Agricultural Sector Growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Mehrabi Boshrabadi 1
  • E. Javdan 2
چکیده [English]

This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the agricultural sector growth in Iran during the period of 1969-2007. The Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) Approach is employed to measure the real exchange rate Uncertainty. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to obtain the estimates of the co-integrate relations and the short run dynamics. The results showed robust and significant short and long run relationships between variables in the Iranian agricultural sector growth model. The real exchange rate uncertainty had a significant negative effect on agricultural sector growth. The error correction term (-0.71) is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting a quick adjustment process. Based on the results, it was suggested that in order to reduce uncertainty, foreign exchange, trade, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. Furthermore, designing insurance programs to overcome this problem is recommended to compensate losses of exchange rate uncertainty. JEL Classification: F31, O11, Q10
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural Sector
  • Growth
  • real exchange rate
  • uncertainty
  • Iran
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