بررسی عوامل اقتصادی موثر بر عرضه شیر در ایران، رهیافت گشتاورهای تعمیم-یافته ( GMM)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• رضا رنج پور ¹
• حبیب آقاجانی ²
• اکبر سلمانی ²

¹ گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز

² دانشگاه تبریز

10.30495/jae.2021.15782.1795

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: با توجه به اهمیت شیر هم در بخش تولید (به علت میزان اشتغال­زایی و ایجاد درآمد برای فعالان این حوزه) و هم در بخش تقاضا و مصرف (به علت تاثیر آن بر سلامت عمومی و غیره) یکـی از هدف‌های مهـم سیاسـت­گذاری دولت­ در بخش کشاورزی می­تواند افزایش عرضه و تقاضای شیر باشد.
مواد و روش­ها: هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر عرضه شیر در ایران براساس داده های استان‌ها می­باشد. براین اساس در راستای اهداف پژوهش از داده­های 28 استان ایران در بازه زمانی 1394-1381استفاده‌ شد. مدل پژوهش با استفاده از رهیافت داده­های تابلویی و در قالب روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته برآورد شد.
یافته­ها:  با توجه به نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل، عرضه شیر در ایران از تعداد دام تاثیر مثبت و از هزینه نهاده‌های دامی تاثیر منفی می‌پذیرد. هم‌چنین، با وقفه یکساله، قیمت شیر و سطح مرتع تاثیر مثبت و قیمت گوشت تاثیر منفی بر عرضه شیر دارد.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: اصلاح نژاد دام‌های شیرده، حمایت قیمتی، استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین دامپروری و مدیریت چرای دام از راهکارهای پیشنهادی برای ارتقای عرضه شیر در کشور می‌باشد

کلیدواژه‌ها

• عرضه شیر
• دامپروری
• قیمت شیر
• الگوی پویا
• روش گشتاور های تعمیم‌یافته

20.1001.1.20086407.1400.13.3.2.5

---

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Economic Factors Affecting Milk Supply in Iran, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)

نویسندگان [English]

• reza ranjpour ¹
• habib aghajani ²
• akbar salmani ²

¹ economic, university of tabriz, tabriz, iran

² economic, university of tabriz

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Given the importance of milk both in the production sector (due to job creation and income generation for activists in this field) and in demand and consumption (due to its impact on public health, etc.) one of the important goals of government policy in the agricultural sector can be to increase the supply and demand of milk.
Materials and Methods: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic factors affecting milk supply in Iran based on the data collected from the provinces. The research model was estimated using the panel data approach in the form of generalized method of moments.
Findings: According to the results of model estimation, milk supply in Iran is positively affected by the number of livestock and negatively affected by the cost of livestock inputs. Also, with a one-year break, milk prices and pasture area have a positive effect and meat prices have a negative effect on milk supply.
Conclusion: Breeding of lactating cattle, price support, use of new animal husbandry technologies and management of livestock grazing are some of the proposed solutions to improve the milk supply in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• milk supply
• animal husbandry
• milk price
• dynamic pattern
• generalized method of moment

مراجع

1. Akhtar JM, Hussain Mj, & Ishaque M. Demand and supply analysis of milk production: A case study of District Sargodha. Pakistan Journal of Science. 2011; 63 (3): 147-149. https://www.thefreelibrary.com/DEMAND+AND+SUPPLY+ANALYSIS+OF+MILK+PRODUCTION%3A+A+CASE+STUDY+OF...-a0269772733
2. Altarawneh M. Estimating supply and demand functions for dairy cow's milk production. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology. 2015; 7 (3): 1-5. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282519320_Estimating_Supply_and_Demand_Functions_for_Dairy_Cows_Milk_Production
3. Baltagi B. Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons. 2008 A. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Econometric+Analysis+of+Panel+Data%2C+4th+Edition-p-9781119958451
4. Baltagi, B. A companion to econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons. 2008 B. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+Companion+to+Econometric+Analysis+of+Panel+Data-p-9780470744031
5. Bui Thi N, Tran Huu C, Lebailly P. Dairy milk production in the North of Viet Nam: A case study in Moc Chau. International Journal of Advance in Management, Technology and Engineering Sciences journal. 2012; 2 (3): 25-32. https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/131280/1/Singapore_presentation_7-8.12.12.pdf
6. Bui Thi N, Tran Huu, C, Thu LT, Lebailly, P. Milk production and marketing in small dairy holders in the Northern area of Vietnam: a case study in Phu Dong. Proceedings of Scientific Research Results-Institutional University Cooperation Program. 2013; (2008-2012): 287-297. https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/148140/1/Milk-production-and-marketing-in-small-dairy-holders.pdf
7. Chabok SA, Shadparvar A, Ghorbani A, Dadashi M. A. Estimation of economic coefficients of milk production, fat percentage, protein percentage and life duration in Gilan native cows. Quarterly Journal of Rural and Development. 2007; 10 (2): 169-195. (In Persian) https://ijasr.um.ac.ir/article/view/37380/article_35907_f376eafa4b9e7433b62a96cc179f629f.pdf?lang=en
8. Coffey BK. An analysis of the effects of feed ingredient price risk on the selection of minimum cost backgrounding beed rations. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 2001; 33 (2): 353-365. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/15031.html
9. Giha C, Arakelyan I, Chalmers N. Processors pricing and smallholders’ milk supply response in Malawi: An application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Contributed paper at the 29th international conference of agricultural economists in an interconnected world. Milan. 2015; August: 9–14. https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae15/212295.html
10. He Y, Zhang Q, Yang G, Cao S, Ding W, Hu LS. Measuring market power and cost efficiency: An application to the Chinese milk industry. Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment. 2013; 11: 263-266. https://www.wflpublisher.com/Abstract/4261
11. Minstry of Agriculure. Agricultural statistical year book. Deputy for Planning and Economic Affairs. 2014; Part 2. Tehran. (In Persian) http://www.maj.ir/Index.aspx?page_=form&lang=1&PageID=11583&tempname=amar&sub=65&methodName=ShowModuleContent
12. Javazan P, Sadeghi M, Mahdavi KH. Investigating the cost and benefit of livestock in rangeland-related livestock and how to strengthen the economic strength of rangers (Alborz Dam, Ghaemshahr). Journal of Natural Ecosystems. 2012; 3: 67-73. https://www.sid.ir/FA/JOURNAL/ViewPaper.aspx?id=157864
13. Jones BL. Growth in dairy farms: The consequencesof taking big steps or small ones when expanding. UW Center for Dairy Profitability, University of Wisconsin. 1999. http://docplayer.net/19249772-Growth-in-dairy-farms-the-consequences-of-taking-big-steps-or-small-ones-when-expanding.html
14. Kovalsky K. An assessment of the effects of economic conditions on supply & demand relationships in the markets for branded and private label milk. Food & Resource Economics. 2010; 10 (2): 1-37. https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00060599/00001
15. Mehregan N, Ashrafzadeh SHR. Panel data econometrics. Cooperative Research Institute. University of Tehran, Tehran. 2008. (In Persian) https://www.gisoom.com/book/1498100/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%84-%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AA%D8%A7/
16. Nerlove M. Estimates of elasticities of supply of selected agricultural commodities. Journal of Farm Economics. 1956; 38: 494-509. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2307/1234389

 

17. Nikokar A, Shahouni N, Mollai M. Analysis of market structure and the effect of price transfer on marketing margin in the Iranian dairy industry. 7th Biennial Conference on Agricultural Economics of Iran. 2011. (In Persian) http://iranianaes.ir/page.php?slct_pg_id=151&sid=1&slc_lang=fa
18. Ranjpour R, & Karimi Takanlou Z. Panel data econometrics. Samt, Tehran. 2014. (In Persian) https://samta.samt.ac.ir/content/9510/%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C%DB%8C
19. Shahikitash M, Hojjati H. Measuring the elasticity of conjectural changes and market power in selected industries of Iran. Journal of Applied Economic Studies in Iran. 2013; 2 (6): 85-103. (In Persian) https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_463.html
20. Shams A, Nabizadeh N, Shabanali H. A study on the role of rural women in rural animal husbandry exploitation system (Attitude, Motivation and Barriers to participation) in Charavimaq County. Women in Development and Politics (Women's Research). 2015; 13 (3): 439-453. (In Persian) http://rvt.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_81726.html?lang=fa