تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر ترکیب صادرات محصولات کشاورزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مهتاب خیاط فراهانی ¹
• سید یعقوب زراعت کیش ²
• امیر محمدی نژاد ³

¹ گروه اقتصاد /دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت /دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب/شهر تهران /کشورایران

² دانشیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحدعلوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

³ استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی-واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

10.30495/jae.2022.25165.2172

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر نوسانات اقلیمی تجارت محصولات کشاورزی را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. در پژوهش حاضر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی با توجه به نوع نیاز آبی در دو گروه طی بازه زمانی 1380-1396 دسته‌بندی شده‌اند و تأثیر دو عامل بارش و دما در الگوهای ترکیبی جداگانه در هر گروه آزمون شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگوها نشان می‌دهد که حساسیت صادرات محصولات منتخب به متغیر بارش در هر دو گروه مثبت است و شدت این حساسیت در گروه پرمصرف آبی (25 درصد) بیش از گروه کم‌مصرف (18 درصد) است. حساسیت صادرات به شاخص دما نیز در هر دو الگو بسیار بالا و مثبت ارزیابی شده است. رفتار صادرات محصولات کشاورزی منتخب در هر دو گروه در مواجهه با تنش‌های اقلیمی به‌صورت U معکوس است. با توجه به یافته‌های پژوهش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی باغی و زراعی در شرایط خشک‌سالی به سمت اقلامی سوق پیدا خواهد کرد که در برابر تنش‌های اقلیمی مقاوم‌تر هستند. بنابراین تغییر الگوی کشت، تجارت محصولات کشاورزی را متحول خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ترکیب محصولات
• تغییر اقلیمی
• صادرات کشاورزی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Climate Change on the Export of Agricultural Products in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• mahtab khaiat farahani ¹
• Seyed Yaghoub Zeraat-Kish ²
• Amir Mohammadinejad ³

¹ economic department/economic and management/Islamic azad university south tehran Branch/city Tehran/country Iran

² Department of Environmental Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, IRAN

³ Department of Agricultural Economics/science and Research Branch/Islamic Azad University/Tehran/Iran

چکیده [English]

In recent years, climate change has affected the agricultural trade. In the present study, the export of agricultural products has been classified into two groups according to the type of water requirement during the period of 1380-1386 and the effect of two factors of precipitation and temperature on the combined patterns have been tested separately in each group. The results of the estimates of the models show that the sensitivity of exporting the selected products to the precipitation variable in both groups is positive and the intensity of this sensitivity in the higher used water group (25%) is higher than the lower used group (18%). Export elasticity to the temperature index is also evaluated as very high and positive in both models. The export behavior of selected agricultural products in both groups in the face of climatic tensions is inversely U-shaped. According to the research findings, the export of agricultural products in drought conditions will shift to items that are more resistant to climatic tensions. Therefore, changing the cultivation pattern will transform the agricultural trade.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural Exports
• Climate Change
• Products

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