برآورد تابع تقاضای نهاده‌ آب در تولید محصول برنج در شهرستان گرگان: کاربرد رگرسیون های به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ثریا انصاری روشنده ¹
• علی کرامت زاده ²
• اعظم رضایی ²
• خلیل قربانی ³

¹ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

² عضو هئیت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

³ عضو هئیت علمی گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی.

10.30495/jae.2022.23722.2114

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: با توجه به تغییر الگوی کشت شهرستان گرگان به سمت محصول برنج به عنوان یک محصول آب بر از یک طرف و افت سطح سفره آب زیرزمینی از طرف دیگر، اهمیت مطالعه مدیریت منابع آب و شناخت عوامل موثر بر تقاضای آب را بیش از پیش نمایان می‌کند.
مواد و روش­ها: یافته­ها:در این مطالعه به برآورد تابع تقاضای آب در تولید محصول برنج، با استفاده از روش‌های سیستمی و رگرسیون­های به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) پرداخته شد. داده‌های مربوط به این پژوهش در سال 97-1396 از راه تکمیل 314 پرسش‌نامه به روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌ای تصادفی از شالی‌کاران شهرستان گرگان بدست آمد.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: تقاضای آب کشش پذیر نیست، یعنی با افزایش قیمت آب تقاضای آب کاهش قابل توجهی نخواهد داشت.  بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود در کنار ابزار قیمت آب از سیاست‌های تکمیلی نظیر افزایش راندمان و استفاده از روش‌های مدرن آبیاری نیز استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تابع تولید لئونتیف
• تابع هزینه ترانسلوگ
• کشش جزئی آلن
• کشش قیمتی خودی و متقاطع

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Water Demand Function in Rice Production in Gorgan County: Application of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) Method

نویسندگان [English]

• Soraia Ansari ¹
• ali keramatzadeh ²
• Azam Rezaee ²
• Khalil Ghorbani ³

¹ M.Sc. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

² Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

³ Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Given the changing cropping pattern of Gorgan County in favor of rice as more irrigated product on one hand and groundwater level decline on the other hand, it is more important to study and identify the factors affecting rice water demand.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the estimation of water demand function in rice production was investigated using system estimation methods and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR). The required data were collected through filling out 314 questionnaires by farmers. Sample farmers were selected by stratified random sampling method in Gorgan in 2017-18.
Findings: The results showed that most of the coefficients were significant at the 5% level and Allen's partial elasticity had the expected sign.  This indicates that there is a reverse relationship between price and quantity of water demanded. The self-price elasticity of water demand indicates that for a 1 percent increase in water price, water demand decreases by 0.19 percent.
Conclusion: The demand for water is inelastic, That is, with the increase in water prices, water demand will not decrease significantly. Accordingly, it is recommended to use complementary policies such as increasing efficiency and using modern irrigation methods along with water pricing policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Leontief Production Function
• Translog Cost Function
• Allen's Partial Elasticity
• Price and Cross-Price Elasticity

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