شاخص فقر آب و عوامل اقتصادی موثر بر آن در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• رضا رنج پور ¹
• سید کمال صادقی ¹
• محمد علی متفکر آزاد ²
• داود بهبودی ²
• امین تسلیمی بابلی ³

¹ دانشیار علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز.

² استاد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز.

³ دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز.

10.30495/jae.2023.19222.1920

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: رشد جمعیت و به دنبال آن افزایش مصرف آب و غذا و نیز معضلاتی نظیر عدم تطابق الگوی توزیع جمعیت با توزیع زمانی و مکانی آب سبب شده‌اند که دسترسی ایمن به آب در ایران دچار بحران شود. این مقاله برای اولین بار به محاسبه دقیق شاخص فقر آب برای ایران طی دوره زمانی 1368 تا 1394 می‌پردازد.
مواد و روش­ها: در این مقاله از یک مدل جدید به نام سیستم ارزیابی چندشاخصه آب با رویکرد نظریه فاجعه برای محاسبه شاخص فقر آب کمک گرفته اشده ست. برای نخستین بار با استفاده از مدل اقتصاد سنجی رگرسیون سانسور شده تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر شاخص فقر آب طی دوره 1394-1368 ارزیابی شده است.
یافته ها:  نتایج حاصل از محاسبه شاخص فقر آب نشان­دهنده سیر صعودی روند این شاخص و مؤلفه­های آن است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین ضرایب مدل رگرسیونی سنسور شده حاکی از آن است که افزایش جمعیت، تولید ناخالص داخلی، شاخص توسعه مورد استفاده و سهم ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی سبب بدتر شدن شاخص فقر آب در ایران شده است.
بحث و نتیجه­ گیری: با توجه به یافته­های حاصل از محاسبه شاخصهای مربوط به فقر آب و نیز تخمین تابع تصریح شده در این زمینه، ادامه روند گذشته و کنونی مصرف و مدیریت منابع آبی کشور در بخشهای مختلف اعم از کشاورزی، صنعت و خانوار و غیره، تشدید نا امنی و افزایش فقر آب در ایران اجتناب ناپذیر است. لذا لازم است مسئولان امر با استفاده از سیاستهای قیمتی و غیر قیمتی این خطر بسیار مهم را مدیریت و کنترل کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• فقر آب
• تولید ناخالص داخلی
• ارزش افزوده بخش کشارزی
• جمعیت
• شاخص توسعه انسانی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Water Poverty Index and Its Influential Factors in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• reza ranjpour ¹
• Seyed Kamal Sadeghi ¹
• mohamad ali motafakker azad ²
• Davud Behbudi ²
• Amin Taslimi Baboli ³

¹ Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz.Iran

² Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz.

³ Ph.D. candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz.

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Population growth, followed by rising water and food consumption, as well as disruptions such as the disparity of population distribution patterns with the distribution of time and place of water, have caused water-security access to Iran in crisis. 
Materials and Methods: This paper is the first to accurately calculate the Poverty Index for Iran over the period from 1989 to 2015. In this paper, a new model called the Water Multiplier Evaluation System with the Disaster Theory approach is used to calculate the water poverty index. For the first time using the censored regression econometric model, the effect of economic factors affecting the water poverty index during the period of 1989-2015 has been evaluated.
Findings: The results of calculating the water poverty index indicate the upward trend of this indicator and its components. The results of estimating the coefficients of the sensed regression model indicate that population growth, GDP, human development index and added value of the agricultural sector have worsened the water poverty index in Iran
Conclusion: In other words, the current and past trends of the human development index, GDP growth, population growth, increased agricultural production, insecurity and rising water poverty in Iran are inevitable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Water poverty
• Gross Domestic Production
• Value added of agriculture sector
• population
• and human development index

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