مدلسازی هیدرولوژی- اقتصادی جامع کشاورزی و منابع آب استان تهران جهت ارزیابی آثار بالقوه گرمایش جهانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ابوذر پرهیزکاری ¹
• غلامرضا یاوری ²
• ابوالفضل محمودی ²
• غلامرضا بخشی خانیکی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

² دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

³ استاد گروه علوم کشاورزی (بیوتکنولوژی)، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

10.30495/jae.2023.27036.2223

چکیده

در مطالعه حاضر یکپارچه‌سازی سیستم مدل‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی- اقتصادی جامع کشاورزی و منابع آب در استان تهران جهت ارزیابی آثار بالقوه گرمایش جهانی مورد کنکاش و بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از مدل‌های گردش عمومی (GCM) میزان اثرات گازهای گلخانه‌ای برمیانگین متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش تحت سناریوهای انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 بررسی شد. این کار به کمک سامانه دیتایی GCM/RCM و مدل ریزمقیاس LARS-WG صورت گرفت. در ادامه، با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی و تحلیل رگرسیون اثرات متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش برمیانگین عملکرد محصولات منتخب زراعی ارزیابی شد. جهت بررسی تغییرات عملکرد محصولات بر الگوهای زراعی از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان دادکه رفتار متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش طی دوره‌های آتی در سطح حوضه‌های مطالعاتی استان تهران نسبت به دوره پایه به ترتیب افزایشی (26/0 تا 75/3 درجه سانتی‌گراد) و کاهشی (78/0 تا 1/41 میلی‌متر) خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• توسعه کشاورزی
• گرمایش جهانی
• الگوی هیدرواقتصادی
• تولیدات زراعی
• تهران

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Comprehensive Hydrological -Economic Modeling of Agriculture and Water Resources of Tehran Province to Assess the Potential Effects of Global Warming

نویسندگان [English]

• Abozar Parhizkari ¹
• gholamreza yavari ²
• abolfazl mahmoodi ²
• gholamreza bakhshi khaniki ³

¹ University of Tehran PNU

² Associate Professor / Payame Noor Karaj Economic Group

³ Professor of Agricultural Science (Biotechnology) Payam Noor University

چکیده [English]

in the present study, the integration of comprehensive Hydrological -economic modeling system of agriculture and water resources in Tehran province was investigated, in order to assess the potential effects of global warming. To achieve this goal, first using General Circulation Models (GCM) the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were investigated. This was done with the help of GCM/RCM data system and LARS-WG microscale model. Then, using econometric approach and regression analysis, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the average yield of selected products were evaluated. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used to investigate changes in products yields on cropping patterns. The results showed that the behavior of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation during the future periods in the study basins of Tehran province compared to the base period will increase (0/26 to 3/75 °c) and decrease (0/78 to 41/1 mm) respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural Development
• Global Warming
• Hydroeconomic Model
• Agricultural Production
• Tehran

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