بررسی تبعات کاهش آب بر تولید بحش های اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• عباس پرور ¹
• حمیدرضا میرزایی ²

¹ استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد جیرفت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جیرفت، ایران

² دانشیار ، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

10.30495/jae.2023.29550.2308

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: آب یکی از منابع مهم پایه ای برای توسعه کشور و مهم ترین عامل تولید در کشاورزی است. امروزه جوامع بین المللی از اهمیت آب در جهت داشتن رشد اقتصادی پایدار در زمان حال و آینده آگاهند. بخش کشاورزی نقش مهمی در تولید و اشتغال داشته و بر روی سایر بخش‌ها تاثیر زیادی می‌گذارد.
مواد و روش‌ها: در مطالعه حاضر از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 استفاده شد. برای تهیه ماتریس از چهار نوع پایه آماری به شرح زیر استفاده شده است. که شامل: جدول آماری متقارن بخش در بخش با فرض تکنولوژی بخش سال 1380، آمار حساب‌های ملی سال 1390 مرکز آمار ایران، سرشماری‌های نفوس و مسکن سال 1390 مرکز آمار ایران و نتایج طرح آمارگیری از هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری و روستایی سال 1390 مرکز آمار ایران است.
یافته ها: نتایج در قالب آثار مطلق و نسبی ارائه شده است. آثار و تبعات کاهش 10 و 40 درصد منابع آب منجر به کاهش تولید 8896617 و 35586469 میلیون ریال برای بخش های محتلف اقتصادی شده است. از منظر آثار مطلق، میزان آسیب پذیری خانوارهای شهری ناشی از کاهش منابع آب بیش از خانوارهای روستایی بوده است. از منظر آثار نسبی، بیشترین تاثیر کاهش درآمد بر خانوارهای کم درآمد شهری می‌باشد.کاهش نسبی منابع آب از منظر عرضه کننده بر روی عامل کارتاثیر بیشتری از عامل سرمایه دارد.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: با توجه به نتایج حاصل، فناوری آب اندوز راهکاری مناسب برای دستیابی به هدف های کلان توسعة به ویژه در زمینه تولید می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی
• تولید
• بخش‌های اقتصادی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the consequences of water reduction on the production of economic sectors in the framework of the modified model of supply-oriented social accounting matrix.

نویسندگان [English]

• Abbas Parvar ¹
• hamidreza mirzaei ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture Economics, Jiroft Branch, Islamic Azad University, Jiroft, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran, respectively

چکیده [English]

Water is one of the important basic resources for the development of the country and the most important factor of production in agriculture. Today, the international community is aware of the importance of water in order to have sustainable economic growth now and in the future. This study has investigated the effect of reducing water resources on production and employment of economic sectors. The results are presented in the form of absolute and relative effects. The effects and consequences of reducing 10 and 40% of water resources have led to a decrease in production of 8896617 and 35586469 million rials for various economic sectors. In terms of absolute effects, the vulnerability of urban households due to reduced water resources has been higher than rural households. In terms of relative effects, the greatest impact of income reduction is on low-income urban households. The relative reduction of water resources from the supplier perspective has a greater impact on the labor factor than the capital factor.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Social Accounting Matrix
• Production
• Economic sectors

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