تحلیل مکانی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد زعفران (مطالعه موردی شهرستان‌های استان خراسان رضوی، شمالی و جنوبی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• منصوره وفائی ¹
• سامان ضیائی ²
• حمید محمدی ³
• محمود احمدپور ²

¹ دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

² دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

³ استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

10.30495/jae.2024.29492.2307

چکیده

مقدمه وهدف:از آنجا که امنیت غذایی انسان­ها و تغییر اقلیم به­عنوان مهم­ترین موضوع­ها در سطح جهان مطرح خواهد بود و با توجه به اهمیت روز افزون اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولیدات محصولات کشاورزی، امنیت غذایی و وابستگی میزان عملکرد  به نزولات جوی، هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی چون دما، بارندگی، نهاده­های مصرفی کود و پیاز بر عملکرد زعفران در  شهرستان­های استان خراسان رضوی، شمالی و جنوبی طی سال­های 1398-1380 است.
 مواد و روش ها: بدین منظور با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین و مدل خود توضیح مکانی (SAR) تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی در سه اقلیم گرم و خشک، معتدل و سرد در استان­های مذکور بررسی گردید.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: نتایج حاصل از مدل در سه اقلیم نشان داد که میزان بارندگی، کود و پیاز برخلاف دما بر عملکرد زعفران تأثیر مثبت و معنی­داری دارد و معنی­دار بودن ضریب وقفه مکانی متغیر وابسته، وجود اثرات مکانی را تأیید می­کند. با توجه به نتایج که درجه حرارت بالا،  کاهش بارندگی و کاهش عملکرد زعفران در دوره­های آتی می­باشد. باید از ارقام محصول که مقاومت بیشتری در برابر خشکسالی و گرما دارند استفاده شود و کشاورزان خود را با شرایط آب و هوایی تطبیق دهند  تا عوامل جوی خسارت کمتری را به محصول زعفران وارد نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• سنجی فضایی
• تغییرات اقلیم
• رهیافت ریکاردین
• زعفران

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial analysis of climate change on saffron yield (Case study of Khorasan Razavi, North Khorasan and South Khorasan cities)

نویسندگان [English]

• Mansooreh Vafaee ¹
• Saman Ziaee ²
• Hamid mohammadi ³
• mahmoud ahmadpour ²

¹ Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.

² Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

³ Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Due to the importance of climate change on agricultural production and the dependence of yield on rainfall, the purpose of this article is to investigate effect of climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, fertilizer and onion inputs on saffron yield in cities of Khorasan provinces during the years 1398-1380. For this purpose, using Ricardin model and mixed spatial autoregressive model (SAR), the effect of climate change in three climates: hot and dry, temperate and cold in the mentioned provinces was investigated. The results of the model in three climates showed that the amount of rainfall, fertilizer and onion, contrary to temperature, have a positive and significant effect on saffron yield and the significance of the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable confirms the existence of spatial effects. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to increase the serious events of high temperature and decrease rainfall and reduce the yield of saffron in future periods and the undeniable role of saffron in livelihood, employment and income generation of farmers in the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Spatial econometrics
• climate change
• Ricardian approach
• saffron

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