کاربرد برنامه ریزی چند هدفه و پارامتر های کنترل کننده میزان محافظه کاری در برنامه ریزی زراعی مطالعه موردی: شهرستان مشهد

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

چکیده

تصمیم‌گیری در مورد طرح‌های کشاورزی بدون توجه به عدم حتمیت باعث بروز مشکلات فراوانی برای کشاورزان و مدیران اجرایی خواهد شد. در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی چند منظوره در شرایط عدم حتمیت به تعیین الگوی بهینه کشت در شهرستان مشهد پرداخته شد. برای حل مدل مورد مطالعه از روش مجموعه غیر پست استفاده و براین اساس، ماتریس بازده نهایی برای تعیین وزن اهداف، حداکثر کردن درآمد ناخالص و حداقل کردن هزینه محاسبه شد. برای اعمال شرایط عدم حتمیت در مدل از بهینه سازی با پارامترهای کنترل کننده میزان محافظه کاری استفاده شد. داده های مورد نیاز مطالعه از جهاد کشاورزی شهرستان مشهد برای سال زراعی 1386 اخذ گردید و یافته ها نشان داد که با کاهش میزان عدم حتمیت، سطح زیرکشت کل و درآمد ناخالص کشاورزان افزایش می یابد. با توجه به یافته ها، سیاست های بیمه ای در جهت کاهش ریسک قیمتی یا تولیدی و سیاست قیمت تضمینی برای محصولاتی که با افزایش میزان عدم حتمیت در مدل، الگوهای بهینه کشت را تحت تأثیر قرار می دهند، توصیه می شود
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of Optimal Cropping Pattern under Uncertainty in Mashhad District: Application of Multi-objective Programming

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Mardani 1
  • H. Sakhdari 1
  • M. Saboohi 2
چکیده [English]

In this paper, optimal cropping pattern under uncertainty were determined for Mashhad district using multi-objective programming. The non-inferior set technique used to solve model. On this basis, the pay-off matrix was calculated to determine objective weights, maximizing total gross income, and minimizing total cost. Optimization with degree of conservative controller parameters was used to impose uncertainty. Needed data were obtained from Jahad-e-Keshavarzi of Mashhad district for the year 2007. The results showed that total cultivation area and gross margin were increased with reduction in uncertainty. On this basis, policies such as insurance and guaranteed price were recommended to reduce uncertainty.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi-Objective Programming
  • non-inferior set
  • uncertainty
  • Mashhad district
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