ارزیابی ساختار تقاضای کالاهای اساسی بخش کشاورزی: با لحاظ متغیرهای دموگرافیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مهری احمدی جاوید ¹
• صادق خلیلیان ²
• سید حبیب الله موسوی ²
• حامد نجفی علمدارلو ²

¹ دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

² دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

10.30495/jae.2024.29913.2320

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: اثربخشی سیاست‌های مختلف اقتصادی همواره بستگی به شناخت کامل از ساختار تقاضا و الگوی مصرف خانوار داشته است. لذا تخمین تقاضا و برآورد کشش­های مختلف، تاثیر بسزایی بر امنیت غذایی، سلامت و رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان دارد.
مواد و روش­ها: در این پژوهش به منظور تخمین سیستم تقاضا از سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده­آل درجه دوم با لحاظ متغیرهای دموگرافیک، استفاده شد.  بدین منظور، داده­های خام طرح هزینه و درآمد خانوار مربوط به سال­ 1399 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت.
یافته­ ها: نتایج نشان می­دهد که تمامی کشش­های جبرانی و غیرجبرانی خودی تقاضای خانوارهای روستایی و شهری در سال 1399 منفی و قدر مطلق آنها کمتر از واحد هستند؛ در نتیجه همگی از کالاهای ضروری به شمار می­روند. همچنین نتیجه­ ی کشش مخارج گوشت قرمز، قند و شکر و شیر برای همه خانوارها و روغن و حبوبات برای خانوارهای روستایی بالاتر از یک و کشش مخارج سایر گروه­ها مثبت و کمتر از واحد بوده است.
بحث و نتیجه­ گیری: با توجه به اهمیت گروه «گوشت»، توجه به الگوی قیمت‌گذاری این کالا در سبد مصرفی خوراکی خانوارها از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. همچنین با توجه به  اثر درآمدی بالای این گروه، پیشنهاد می­شود با افزایش قیمت این کالاها، برای دستیابی به سطح رضایت اولیه بیشترین کمک حمایتی از این گروه خوراکی اعمال شود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

• "تقاضای کالاهای کشاورزی
• متغیرهای دموگرافیک خانوار
• QUAIDS

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عنوان مقاله [English]

An Evaluation of the Structure of Essential Commodities Demand in Agricultural Sector: Including Demographics

نویسندگان [English]

• Mehri Ahmadi Javid ¹
• Sadegh Khalilian ²
• Seyed Habibollah Mosavi ²
• Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo ²

¹ Ph.D. of Agricultural Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares

² Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares

چکیده [English]

Introduction: The effectiveness of different economic policies depends on the full recognition of demand structure and household consumption pattern. So, estimating the demand and different elasticity has an important effect on food security and consumers' health and welfare.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the method of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and the quadratic almost ideal demand system containing demographic variables, is used to estimate the demand system. For this purpose, the raw data of household expenditure and income plan for the year 2020 is used
Findings: The results show that all the compensated and relative uncompensated price elasticity of urban and rural households are negative and less than one in 2020. So, it seems that all the commodity groups are really essential. Also, the result of the meat, sugar and milk groups(total households) and oil and beans groups(rural households) expenditure elasticity is more than one and the expenditure elasticity of the other groups is positive and less than one.
Conclusion: As for the importance of "meat" group, considering the pricing model for the commodity in the household food basket is very important. Since the income effect of the group is high, so it is suggested that the most supportive help of the food group being applied to access the initial satisfaction level, because the commodity' prices will increase daily

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural commodities demand
• household demographic variables
• QUAIDS

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