Testing for Bubbles in the Import Market of Some Strategic Agricultural Commodities of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

• Majid Maddah

دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان.

Abstract

The market of agricultural products such as any other markets is facing with some ups and downs in the commodity prices which is generally considered as the potential characteristic of the markets showing the ongoing processes within the market. Sometimes the market will be faced with some unexpected robust reactions which have the negative effects on the people's economic situation. In this regard, the problem of unstable market, and formation of price bubble is a main issue in agricultural markets in which this formation, considering the role of agricultural products especially strategic products in providing needed nutrition for people's life, has negative impacts on the citizen's food security. In this article the existence of price bubble in the Iranian imported market of some strategic imported commodities during 1357-1390, has been investigated in the formwork of Right-Tailed Unit Root Test Method, by Phillips et.al. The findings from research show that the dealing of grain experienced a bubble price while in case of edible oil, wheat, and tea such a problem was not verified.

Keywords

• Price Bubble
• agricultural products
• Right-tailed unit root test method
• Iran's Economy

20.1001.1.20086407.1397.10.39.12.6

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