Simulation of Agricultural Land Use Cover Changes Using Mathematical Programming Based Multi-agent system (MP-MAS) in Babolsar

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• kamal Ataie s
• ahmad ali keykha ¹
• Mahmoud Ahmadpour ²
• Saman Ziaee ³
• Farhad HoseiAli ⁴

¹ Associated Professor of Agricultural economics of university of Zabol

² Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics of university of Zabol

³ Assistance Professor of agricultural economics of university of Zabol

⁴ Assistance Professor of Civil of Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training University of Tehran

Abstract

According to debates and concerns about environmental changes, land use coverage changes have been taken seriously in recent decades. One of the most popular approaches to the simulation is Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). ABM is a set of computational models for simulating the actions and reactions of autonomous agents. The purpose of this research in 2016, is to simulate the status of agricultural land use cover changes in Babolsar over the next 30 years using the mathematical programming based-multi agent system (MP-MAS). The results showed that rain fed products would eliminate from the cultivation pattern of the region, and the development of mechanized Rice cultivation will occur. The area under cultivation of the horticultural products of the region will grow from 3,959 hectares to over 5585 hectares. The results will help managers with a strategic insight at the future of agricultural land use cover changes as they can simulate feedback on their policies and economic decisions.

Keywords

• Agent-based modeling
• Babolsar
• Land Use Cover Change
• Mathematical Programming Based Multi-agent system (MP-MAS)
• Positive Mathematical programming Planning

20.1001.1.20086407.1398.11.44.12.3

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