Predicting and Studying the Effect of Uncertainty in the Real Exchange Rate on the Agricultural Department Imports of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• sima shafei ¹
• yadollah bostan ²
• Ahmad Fatahiardakani ³
• DORNA jahangirpor ¹
• Rahman Erfani ⁴

¹ Ph.D. Student of Natural Resources and Environmental Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz,Iran.

² M.Sc. of Agricultural Economics, Ardakan University

³ Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ardakan University .

⁴ Director of Rice Research Institute of Iran, Mazandaran.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Iran's agricultural imports for the period of 1977-1389 and predict the level of Iranian agricultural imports by 1404 using GARCH, VAR, VECM and ANN methods. For this purpose, a generalized autoregressive conditional heterogeneity variance model was used to index the real exchange rate uncertainty, using autoregressive patterns and vector error correction for estimating co-integration and short-term and long-term coherent relationships and finally for prediction of artificial neural network method. The results showed that there is an indirect relationship between the real exchange rate fluctuations and consumption pattern of the society on agricultural imports and the direct relation between oil revenue variable and the absorption variable on agricultural imports. Then, comparing the efficiency of self-regression models and Vector Error Correction Model and artificial neural network, a neural network designed to predict the import of Iranian agricultural sector for the period 1396 to 1404 was used under a scenario and exogenous predictions were .....

Keywords

• ANN
• Exchange Rate
• Imports
• Iran
• Prediction

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