A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Hamed Ghaderzadeh ¹
• shima ghosairi darbandeh ²

¹ Member of Science Committee of Kurdistan University.

² Graduated from Kurdistan University

Abstract

Based on Dutch disease, it is predicted that due to increased oil incomes, its consequences may be reflected in all other economic sectors including traditional sector. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on some variables in agricultural sector. Data used for the study include production, exports, and pistachio and dates prices during years 1994-2014. data concerning agricultural sector was collected from website of agricultural –jihad ministry and Iran’s statistical centre as well as Central Bank site during years 1994-2014. As results of two ARIMAX and neural network models showed that, the order of impact intensity of oil price fluctuations is the same on each variable in both models. But in neural network, the direction of impact of oil price fluctuations on variables has taken place more precisely so that a reverse relationship between oil price and two variables of production and exports which have led to Dutch disease phenomenon is clearly shown. Therefore, the neural network model is more accurate than the Arimax model.

Keywords

• Dutch disease
• Agricultural Sector
• ARIMAX model
• Neural network

20.1001.1.20086407.1399.12.48.9.5

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