Comprehensive Hydrological -Economic Modeling of Agriculture and Water Resources of Tehran Province to Assess the Potential Effects of Global Warming

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 University of Tehran PNU

2 Associate Professor / Payame Noor Karaj Economic Group

3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University

4 Professor of Agricultural Science (Biotechnology) Payam Noor University

Abstract

in the present study, the integration of comprehensive Hydrological -economic modeling system of agriculture and water resources in Tehran province was investigated, in order to assess the potential effects of global warming. To achieve this goal, first using General Circulation Models (GCM) the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were investigated. This was done with the help of GCM/RCM data system and LARS-WG microscale model. Then, using econometric approach and regression analysis, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the average yield of selected products were evaluated. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used to investigate changes in products yields on cropping patterns. The results showed that the behavior of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation during the future periods in the study basins of Tehran province compared to the base period will increase (0/26 to 3/75 °c) and decrease (0/78 to 41/1 mm) respectively.

Keywords

References

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Agricultural Economics Research
Volume 15, Issue 2
July 2023
Pages 29-56

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 January 2021
  • Revise Date: 15 August 2021
  • Accept Date: 06 August 2023

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