Spatial analysis of climate change on saffron yield (Case study of Khorasan Razavi, North Khorasan and South Khorasan cities)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Saman Ziaee ¹
• Mansooreh Vafaee ²
• Hamid mohammadi ³
• mahmoud ahmadpour ¹

¹ Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran

² PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol

10.30495/jae.2024.29492.2307

Abstract

Due to the importance of climate change on agricultural production and the dependence of yield on rainfall, the purpose of this article is to investigate effect of climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, fertilizer and onion inputs on saffron yield in cities of Khorasan provinces during the years 1398-1380. For this purpose, using Ricardin model and mixed spatial autoregressive model (SAR), the effect of climate change in three climates: hot and dry, temperate and cold in the mentioned provinces was investigated. The results of the model in three climates showed that the amount of rainfall, fertilizer and onion, contrary to temperature, have a positive and significant effect on saffron yield and the significance of the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable confirms the existence of spatial effects. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to increase the serious events of high temperature and decrease rainfall and reduce the yield of saffron in future periods and the undeniable role of saffron in livelihood, employment and income generation of farmers in the region.

Keywords

• Spatial econometrics؛
• climate change
• Ricardian approach
• saffron

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