Assessing the Impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Cereal Production: Empirical Evidence from Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Abolfazl Deylami ¹
• Ramtin Joolaie ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,

² Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390

Abstract

Introduction: Ensuring food security in Iran, as one of the main goals of agricultural policies, are of great importance. However, climate change and non-climatic factors pose challenges to maintaining and increasing cereal production.

Methods: The present study evaluates the impact of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide emissions) and non-climatic factors (agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption) on cereal production in Iran using the ARDL approach and by examining the time period of 1990-2020.

Results: The results of the study show that an increase in temperature and precipitation can lead to an increase in cereal production, while CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in cereal production. Moreover, agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption also have a positive impact on cereal production.

Conclusion: In order to adapt to climate change, agricultural communities need to be provided with information about its impacts and mitigation measures so that they can face these challenges and increase agricultural productivity by utilizing the positive potential created.

Keywords

• cereal production
• climate factors
• carbon dioxide emissions
• agricultural credits

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